Predictions for the 2026 Mortgage Market in Vancouver, BC

By Eitan Pinsky, Leading Mortgage Broker in Vancouver, BC

Vancouver’s 2025 has navigated policy headwinds and rate fluctuations, but 2026 forecasts from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Re/Max Canada, and Central 1 Credit Union signal a rebound. With Bank of Canada (BoC) cuts fostering confidence, this review examines rate paths, price stability, and volume surges tailored to British Columbia’s coastal dynamics, where urban density meets natural appeal.

National Mortgage Rate Trends Shaping 2026

Canadian mortgage rates are poised for stabilization with mild declines. The BoC’s policy rate may hold at 2.25% early in the year before edging to 2.50%, keeping 5-year fixed rates above 4% amid lingering inflation. Renewals pose challenges: Up to 20% of variable-rate mortgages could face payment increases of 15-25% as they adjust. However, fixed-rate options may dip to 4.25-4.75% by mid-year, per industry consensus.
In Vancouver, where high-ratio insured mortgages prevail, this environment favors longer terms to hedge against volatility, especially for condo-heavy portfolios.

Home Prices and Sales Volume: A Provincial Rebound

Nationally, CREA projects a 7.7% sales increase to 509,479 units in 2026 – the highest since 2021 – though below pre-pandemic peaks. Re/Max forecasts 3.4% national growth, with average prices holding near $700,000. Zillow-like indices suggest modest 1-2% appreciation amid balanced supply.

British Columbia bucks softer trends: Sales are expected to rise 10.7% after a 2.2% dip in 2025, with average prices steady around $1 million. Vancouver’s benchmark may see 2.5% growth, driven by motivated returnees and international buyers post-policy easing. Inventory ratios improving to 4-5 months could temper bidding wars, benefiting first-time entrants in East Van and Surrey.

Mortgage Originations: Activity Revival

Origination volumes will track sales momentum, with national estimates implying 10-12% growth in new loans. Focus shifts to purchase activity (75% of total), as refinance demand cools post-renewal shocks. In BC, high-value originations for detached homes and townhomes will dominate, with stress tests easing slightly for qualified borrowers.

Vancouver brokers anticipate a 15% local uptick, fueled by tech and film sector jobs adding 20,000 positions.

Affordability and Buyer Sentiment in Focus

Affordability metrics strain under high prices, with debt-to-income ratios at 40% for many. Yet, sentiment improves: 55% of BC buyers plan moves within 18 months, per Re/Max, drawn by hybrid work and lifestyle perks. Renewals will pressure 25% of households, prompting switches to fixed products.

Emerging Trends: Technology and Sustainability

Digital platforms will handle 50% of applications, with AI fraud detection standard. BC’s green building codes boost eco-mortgages, offering rebates for net-zero retrofits – potentially 20% uptake in rainy Vancouver.

Key Challenges on the Horizon

Tariff uncertainties and economic slowdowns could cap BoC cuts, while foreign buyer taxes linger. Supply lags in multi-family units may sustain 5% vacancy premiums.

Looking Ahead: Vancouver’s Recovery Momentum

2026 heralds a revitalized Vancouver mortgage landscape, with sales rebounds offsetting price plateaus. Emphasis on renewal strategies and sustainable financing will guide borrowers through this transitional year.

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https://welovekits.ca/real-estate-blog/kitsilano-real-estate-market-update-june-2025-houses-condos-townhouses-duplexes-what-you-need-to-know/